SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 46.29%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fleetwood Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Exeter City |
46.29% ( -0.38) | 24.67% ( 0.12) | 29.04% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 56.18% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.47% ( -0.39) | 46.53% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.2% ( -0.37) | 68.8% ( 0.36) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.82% ( -0.32) | 20.18% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.52% ( -0.51) | 52.48% ( 0.51) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.39% ( -0.02) | 29.61% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.35% ( -0.02) | 65.65% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.29% | 1-1 @ 11.63% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.66% | 0-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.08% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.29% Total : 29.04% |
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