Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 16.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 0-1 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
