Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
0.01) 
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