Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 21.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
