SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
42.53% ( 1.05) | 24.87% ( -0.12) | 32.61% ( -0.93) |
| Both teams to score 57.35% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.18% ( 0.28) | 45.82% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.87% ( 0.27) | 68.13% ( -0.27) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.44% ( 0.62) | 21.56% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.36% ( 0.94) | 54.64% ( -0.94) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.11% ( -0.43) | 26.89% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.8% ( -0.57) | 62.21% ( 0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 2-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.58% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.51% Total : 42.53% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.86% | 1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 5% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.09% Total : 32.61% |
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