Burnley will look to regain some confidence ahead of the Lancashire Derby with Blackburn with a convincing win here, and should get past a lowly Crawley quite comfortably.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 69.84%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 12.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.11%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.47%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.03) 
