Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 64.06%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
0.17) 
-0.12) 
