Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 44.65%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.17) 
