Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
