Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.27% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
