Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 48.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 24.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.
