SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chesterfield | Draw | Northampton Town |
39.2% ( 0.17) | 24.36% ( -0.02) | 36.44% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 60.05% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.32% ( 0.08) | 42.68% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.91% ( 0.08) | 65.09% ( -0.08) |
| Chesterfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.2% ( 0.12) | 21.8% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.99% ( 0.18) | 55.01% ( -0.18) |
| Northampton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.79% ( -0.04) | 23.21% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.89% ( -0.06) | 57.11% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesterfield | Draw | Northampton Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 39.2% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.35% | 1-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.05% 0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.22% Total : 36.44% |
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