Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 44.17%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
