SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
49.96% ( 0.04) | 22.85% ( 0) | 27.19% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 61.05% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.52% ( -0.04) | 39.48% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.18% ( -0.05) | 61.83% ( 0.05) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% | 16.02% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.65% ( -0) | 45.35% ( 0.01) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.69% ( -0.05) | 27.31% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.25% ( -0.07) | 62.76% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.81% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.77% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.05% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.62% Total : 49.96% | 1-1 @ 10.39% 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.84% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 27.19% |
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