Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.47%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 1-0 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
