SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 50.51%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Swindon Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
50.51% ( 3.01) | 25.23% ( -0.41) | 24.26% ( -2.61) |
| Both teams to score 50.39% ( -1.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.77% ( -0.31) | 52.23% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.06% ( -0.27) | 73.94% ( 0.26) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.31% ( 1.17) | 20.69% ( -1.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.71% ( 1.82) | 53.29% ( -1.82) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.54% ( -2.38) | 36.46% ( 2.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.75% ( -2.48) | 73.24% ( 2.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 11.88% ( 0.56) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.75)3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.55)3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.28)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.56% Total : 50.5% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.93% Total : 25.23% | 0-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.41) 1-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.51)0-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.48)1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.32)2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.26)Other @ 1.83% Total : 24.26% |
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