Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 34.99% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
