SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 56.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
56.66% ( 1.01) | 22.39% ( -0.17) | 20.95% ( -0.84) |
| Both teams to score 55.19% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.17% ( -0.31) | 43.83% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.78% ( -0.31) | 66.21% ( 0.3) |
| Mansfield Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.73% ( 0.23) | 15.27% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.04% ( 0.43) | 43.96% ( -0.43) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.14% ( -0.98) | 34.86% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.4% ( -1.05) | 71.59% ( 1.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mansfield Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.63% Total : 56.66% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.38% | 0-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.01% Total : 20.95% |
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