SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
30.69% ( 0.39) | 24.96% ( -0) | 44.35% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 56.18% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.03% ( 0.19) | 46.97% ( -0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.79% ( 0.17) | 69.22% ( -0.16) |
| Accrington Stanley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( 0.36) | 28.7% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.48% ( 0.44) | 64.52% ( -0.43) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.79% ( -0.09) | 21.21% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.9% ( -0.15) | 54.1% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Accrington Stanley | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.36% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.63% Total : 30.69% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.96% | 0-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.57% Total : 44.35% |
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