SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 46.1%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Akhmat Grozny in this match.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Orenburg |
46.1% ( 1.77) | 25.63% ( 0.04) | 28.27% ( -1.81) |
| Both teams to score 52.58% ( -1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.99% ( -1.06) | 51.01% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.12% ( -0.94) | 72.88% ( 0.94) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.89% ( 0.37) | 22.11% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.52% ( 0.56) | 55.48% ( -0.55) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.5% ( -1.87) | 32.5% ( 1.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.97% ( -2.16) | 69.02% ( 2.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 10.84% ( 0.57) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.51)3-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 46.1% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.28)1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.27)2-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.27% |
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