SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Lille had a probability of 36.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Lille |
38.8% ( 0.04) | 24.66% ( 0.01) | 36.55% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 58.98% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.93% ( -0.04) | 44.07% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.55% ( -0.04) | 66.45% ( 0.04) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.39% ( -0) | 22.61% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.77% | 56.23% ( -0) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.21% ( -0.05) | 23.79% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.06% ( -0.06) | 57.94% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Lille |
| 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.95% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.57% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.13% 4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 38.8% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.65% | 1-2 @ 8.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.73% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.55% |
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