SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 57.29%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 21.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.27%) and 1-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
57.29% ( 8.78) | 21.14% ( -2.03) | 21.56% ( -6.75) |
| Both teams to score 60.49% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.73% ( 2.9) | 37.27% ( -2.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.52% ( 3.06) | 59.48% ( -3.06) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.11% ( 3.92) | 12.88% ( -3.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.71% ( 7.49) | 39.28% ( -7.49) |
| Legia Warsaw Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.44% ( -3.68) | 30.56% ( 3.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.21% ( -4.6) | 66.79% ( 4.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.36) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 1.08)1-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 1.08)3-0 @ 5.65% ( 1.38)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.93)4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.99)4-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.39)5-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.51)5-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.51)Other @ 3.9% Total : 57.29% | 1-1 @ 9.57% ( -1.02) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.39)0-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.58)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.14% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -1.28) 0-1 @ 4.67% ( -1.27)0-2 @ 2.77% ( -1.13)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.81)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.61)Other @ 2.83% Total : 21.57% |
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