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Europa Conference League | Group Stage
Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Aston Villa
2 - 1
Legia
Diaby (4'), Moreno (58')
Diaby (36'), Luiz (41'), Tielemans (53'), Duran (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Muci (20')
Gual (39'), Wszolek (41'), Kramer (68'), Jedrzejczyk (75')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 57.29%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 21.56% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.27%) and 1-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawLegia Warsaw
57.29% (8.78 8.78) 21.14% (-2.032 -2.03) 21.56% (-6.749 -6.75)
Both teams to score 60.49% (-0.344 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.73% (2.897 2.9)37.27% (-2.897 -2.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.52% (3.057 3.06)59.48% (-3.057 -3.06)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.11% (3.917 3.92)12.88% (-3.917 -3.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.71% (7.486 7.49)39.28% (-7.486 -7.49)
Legia Warsaw Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.44% (-3.684 -3.68)30.56% (3.684 3.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.21% (-4.598 -4.6)66.79% (4.597 4.6)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 57.29%
    Legia Warsaw 21.57%
    Draw 21.14%
Aston VillaDrawLegia Warsaw
2-1 @ 9.8% (0.361 0.36)
2-0 @ 8.27% (1.082 1.08)
1-0 @ 8.07% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.69% (1.082 1.08)
3-0 @ 5.65% (1.376 1.38)
3-2 @ 3.97% (0.281 0.28)
4-1 @ 3.43% (0.926 0.93)
4-0 @ 2.89% (0.988 0.99)
4-2 @ 2.03% (0.389 0.39)
5-1 @ 1.41% (0.513 0.51)
5-0 @ 1.19% (0.506 0.51)
Other @ 3.9%
Total : 57.29%
1-1 @ 9.57% (-1.015 -1.02)
2-2 @ 5.81% (-0.392 -0.39)
0-0 @ 3.94% (-0.578 -0.58)
3-3 @ 1.57% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 21.14%
1-2 @ 5.67% (-1.283 -1.28)
0-1 @ 4.67% (-1.266 -1.27)
0-2 @ 2.77% (-1.131 -1.13)
2-3 @ 2.3% (-0.42 -0.42)
1-3 @ 2.24% (-0.805 -0.81)
0-3 @ 1.09% (-0.614 -0.61)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 21.57%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Spurs 1-2 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham
Sunday, November 12 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 AZ
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Luton
Sunday, October 29 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: AZ 1-4 Aston Villa
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Legia 2-2 Warta Poznan
Saturday, November 25 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Legia 0-0 Lech Poznan
Sunday, November 12 at 4.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Legia 2-0 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Radomiak Radom 0-1 Legia
Sunday, November 5 at 4.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Legia 1-3 Stal Mielec
Sunday, October 29 at 2pm in Polish Ekstraklasa
Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 1-2 Legia
Thursday, October 26 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

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