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Europa Conference League | Group Stage
Nov 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
AA

Aston Villa
2 - 1
AZ

Carlos (61'), Watkins (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pavlidis (52')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawAZ Alkmaar
40.99% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01) 24.9% (0.0019999999999989 0) 34.11% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 57.69% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.43% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)45.57% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.11% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)67.89% (0.012 0.01)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.82% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)22.18% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.41% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)55.59% (0.023000000000003 0.02)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.14% (0.0039999999999907 0)25.86% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.17% (0.0030000000000001 0)60.83%
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 40.99%
    AZ Alkmaar 34.11%
    Draw 24.9%
Aston VillaDrawAZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.8% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 8.64% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 6.5% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 4.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 3.26% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.99% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 1.66% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.23% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 40.99%
1-1 @ 11.68%
2-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.9%
1-2 @ 7.9% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 7.76% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.25% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 3.56% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.68%
0-3 @ 2.37% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.21% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 34.11%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Aston Villa
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Luton
Sunday, October 29 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: AZ 1-4 Aston Villa
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 4-1 West Ham
Sunday, October 22 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Wolves 1-1 Aston Villa
Sunday, October 8 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Excelsior 1-1 AZ
Saturday, November 4 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: AZ 1-4 Aston Villa
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: AZ 3-0 Heerenveen
Saturday, October 21 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 1-2 AZ
Sunday, October 8 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: AZ 1-0 Legia
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: AZ 4-0 Sittard
Sunday, October 1 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie


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