SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 18.47%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 1-0 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Aston Villa |
60.66% ( -0.16) | 20.86% ( 0.06) | 18.47% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 56.14% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.44% ( -0.13) | 40.56% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.06% ( -0.14) | 62.94% ( 0.14) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.05% ( -0.09) | 12.95% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.58% ( -0.18) | 39.41% ( 0.18) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.49% ( 0.02) | 35.51% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.72% ( 0.03) | 72.27% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.61% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.78% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 6.55% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.46% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.49% Total : 60.66% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.86% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 4.76% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.78% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 18.47% |
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