Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
61.76% (![]() | 20.54% (![]() | 17.69% (![]() |
Both teams to score 55.73% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.62% (![]() | 40.37% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.25% (![]() | 62.75% (![]() |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.43% (![]() | 12.57% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.36% (![]() | 38.64% (![]() |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.74% (![]() | 36.26% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.96% (![]() | 73.04% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
2-1 @ 9.94% (![]() 2-0 @ 9.8% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 9.45% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 6.87% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 6.78% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.56% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 3.51% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.49% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.81% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.48% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.46% ( ![]() Other @ 3.61% Total : 61.76% | 1-1 @ 9.59% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.04% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.56% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.18% ( ![]() Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.54% | 1-2 @ 4.86% (![]() 0-1 @ 4.62% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.35% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.71% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.65% ( ![]() Other @ 2.51% Total : 17.69% |
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