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Premier League | Gameweek 31
Apr 3, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Etihad Stadium
AV

Man City
4 - 1
Aston Villa

Rodri (11'), Foden (45+1', 62', 69')
Grealish (32')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Duran (20')
Luiz (38'), Chambers (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-0 Wolves
Saturday, March 30 at 5.30pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester CityDrawAston Villa
61.76% (0.057000000000002 0.06) 20.54% (0.534 0.53) 17.69% (-0.591 -0.59)
Both teams to score 55.73% (-3.148 -3.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.62% (-3.556 -3.56)40.37% (3.556 3.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.25% (-3.758 -3.76)62.75% (3.758 3.76)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.43% (-1.068 -1.07)12.57% (1.067 1.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.36% (-2.261 -2.26)38.64% (2.261 2.26)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.74% (-2.787 -2.79)36.26% (2.787 2.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.96% (-2.933 -2.93)73.04% (2.933 2.93)
Score Analysis
    Manchester City 61.76%
    Aston Villa 17.69%
    Draw 20.54%
Manchester CityDrawAston Villa
2-1 @ 9.94% (0.089 0.09)
2-0 @ 9.8% (0.798 0.8)
1-0 @ 9.45% (1.126 1.13)
3-1 @ 6.87% (-0.23 -0.23)
3-0 @ 6.78% (0.285 0.29)
4-1 @ 3.56% (-0.277 -0.28)
4-0 @ 3.51% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 3.49% (-0.401 -0.4)
4-2 @ 1.81% (-0.294 -0.29)
5-1 @ 1.48% (-0.183 -0.18)
5-0 @ 1.46% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 61.76%
1-1 @ 9.59% (0.476 0.48)
2-2 @ 5.04% (-0.348 -0.35)
0-0 @ 4.56% (0.707 0.71)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.239 -0.24)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 20.54%
1-2 @ 4.86% (-0.123 -0.12)
0-1 @ 4.62% (0.409 0.41)
0-2 @ 2.35% (0.04 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.261 -0.26)
1-3 @ 1.65% (-0.174 -0.17)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 17.69%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Man City 0-0 Arsenal
Sunday, March 31 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 2-0 Newcastle
Saturday, March 16 at 5.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Liverpool 1-1 Man City
Sunday, March 10 at 3.45pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-1 Copenhagen
Wednesday, March 6 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 3-1 Man Utd
Sunday, March 3 at 3.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 2-6 Man City
Tuesday, February 27 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-0 Wolves
Saturday, March 30 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa
Sunday, March 17 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 4-0 Ajax
Thursday, March 14 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 0-4 Spurs
Sunday, March 10 at 1pm in Premier League
Last Game: Ajax 0-0 Aston Villa
Thursday, March 7 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Luton 2-3 Aston Villa
Saturday, March 2 at 5.30pm in Premier League


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