Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 51.5%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Newcastle United
51.5% ( 0.03)	22.73% ( 0.03)	25.77% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 60.11% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.88% (

-0.19)

40.12% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.51% (

-0.19)

62.49% (

0.2)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.29% (

-0.06)

15.71% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.22% (

-0.11)

44.78% (

0.11)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.32% (

-0.14)

28.68% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.5% (

-0.18)

64.5% (

0.18)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 51.5%

Newcastle United 25.77%

Draw 22.73%

Aston Villa	Draw	Newcastle United
2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.95% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.2% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.69% Total : 51.5%	1-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.73%	1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.51% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0) Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.77%