SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 53.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
53.2% ( -0.16) | 24.23% ( 0.06) | 22.57% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 51.52% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.2% ( -0.15) | 49.79% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.2% ( -0.13) | 71.79% ( 0.13) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.34% ( -0.12) | 18.66% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.02% ( -0.19) | 49.98% ( 0.19) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.34% ( 0.01) | 36.66% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.55% ( 0.01) | 73.44% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 11.48% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.64% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 53.2% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.22% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.77% Total : 22.57% |
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