SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest Brentford win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Brentford | Draw | Aston Villa |
35.97% ( 0.33) | 24.29% ( -0.27) | 39.74% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 60.26% ( 1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.61% ( 1.34) | 42.39% ( -1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.2% ( 1.33) | 64.8% ( -1.32) |
| Brentford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.67% ( 0.8) | 23.33% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.72% ( 1.14) | 57.28% ( -1.14) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.59% ( 0.56) | 21.41% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.59% ( 0.85) | 54.41% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Brentford | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.2% Total : 35.97% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5% ( -0.3)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.29% | 1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.33)0-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 4.44% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 39.74% |
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