SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
32.36% ( -5.02) | 24.75% ( 0.29) | 42.89% ( 4.73) |
| Both teams to score 57.66% ( -2.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.64% ( -2.31) | 45.36% ( 2.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.3% ( -2.24) | 67.7% ( 2.24) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.18% ( -3.94) | 26.82% ( 3.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.88% ( -5.49) | 62.12% ( 5.49) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( 1.28) | 21.2% ( -1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.92% ( 1.95) | 54.09% ( -1.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.71) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.67)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.75)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.47)3-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.59)4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.41)Other @ 3.11% Total : 32.36% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.31)0-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.54)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.74% | 1-2 @ 9% ( 0.55) 0-1 @ 8.82% ( 1.14)0-2 @ 6.84% ( 1.11)1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.45)0-3 @ 3.54% ( 0.69)2-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.24)0-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.31)2-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 42.9% |
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