SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.48% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.35%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
41.56% ( -0.16) | 22.96% ( -0.01) | 35.48% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 65.19% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.07% ( 0.11) | 35.93% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.98% ( 0.13) | 58.02% ( -0.12) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.14% ( -0.02) | 17.86% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.37% ( -0.04) | 48.63% ( 0.04) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.37% ( 0.14) | 20.64% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.8% ( 0.22) | 53.2% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 4.96% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.91% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.94% Total : 41.56% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.96% | 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.16% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3% Total : 35.48% |
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