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Women's Super League | Gameweek 22
May 18, 2024 at 3pm UK
Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Man City Women

Daly (68')
Parker (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Fowler (21'), Hemp (77')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brighton Women 0-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, May 4 at 1pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Man City Women 1-2 Arsenal Women
Sunday, May 5 at 2.15pm in Women's Super League

We said: Aston Villa Women 1-3 Manchester City Women

Man City have won nine of their 10 away league matches, and we think that they will produce another strong away performance to claim all three points, but they may struggle to achieve the three-goal swing in goal difference and such a scenario would leave them relying on a favour from their local rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 77.59%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.22%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 2-1 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester City Women
8.86% (-0.9291 -0.93) 13.55% (-1.124 -1.12) 77.59% (2.052 2.05)
Both teams to score 55.21% (0.739 0.74)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.77% (2.72 2.72)28.23% (-2.719 -2.72)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.97% (3.3 3.3)49.02% (-3.301 -3.3)
Aston Villa Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.65% (0.186 0.19)41.35% (-0.186 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.13% (0.164 0.16)77.86% (-0.166 -0.17)
Manchester City Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.13% (0.96300000000001 0.96)5.87% (-0.963 -0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
77.49% (2.655 2.66)22.51% (-2.656 -2.66)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa Women 8.86%
    Manchester City Women 77.59%
    Draw 13.55%
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester City Women
2-1 @ 2.68% (-0.256 -0.26)
1-0 @ 2.14% (-0.35 -0.35)
3-2 @ 1.12% (-0.035 -0.03)
2-0 @ 0.95% (-0.149 -0.15)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 8.86%
1-1 @ 6.08% (-0.614 -0.61)
2-2 @ 3.8% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 2.43% (-0.411 -0.41)
3-3 @ 1.06% (0.025 0.03)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 13.55%
0-2 @ 9.76% (-0.455 -0.46)
0-3 @ 9.22% (0.081 0.08)
1-2 @ 8.62% (-0.362 -0.36)
1-3 @ 8.14% (0.112 0.11)
0-1 @ 6.88% (-0.734 -0.73)
0-4 @ 6.54% (0.404 0.4)
1-4 @ 5.77% (0.385 0.39)
0-5 @ 3.71% (0.415 0.42)
2-3 @ 3.6% (0.067 0.07)
1-5 @ 3.27% (0.382 0.38)
2-4 @ 2.55% (0.182 0.18)
0-6 @ 1.75% (0.28 0.28)
1-6 @ 1.55% (0.253 0.25)
2-5 @ 1.45% (0.175 0.18)
Other @ 4.79%
Total : 77.59%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Brighton Women 0-1 Aston Villa
Saturday, May 4 at 1pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham
Sunday, April 28 at 2pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Chelsea Women 3-0 Aston Villa
Wednesday, April 17 at 7pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-2 Leicester Women
Saturday, March 30 at 12.30pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-3 Arsenal Women
Sunday, March 24 at 7.30pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Everton Ladies 1-2 Aston Villa
Saturday, March 16 at 1pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Man City Women 1-2 Arsenal Women
Sunday, May 5 at 2.15pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Bristol Women 0-4 Man City Women
Sunday, April 28 at 6.45pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Man City Women 5-0 West Ham
Sunday, April 21 at 2.15pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Liverpool Women 1-4 Man City Women
Saturday, March 30 at 12.30pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Man City Women 3-1 Man Utd Women
Saturday, March 23 at 12.30pm in Women's Super League
Last Game: Brighton Women 1-4 Man City Women
Sunday, March 17 at 12.30pm in Women's Super League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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