SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 77.59%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.22%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 2-1 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Women | Draw | Manchester City Women |
8.86% ( -0.93) | 13.55% ( -1.12) | 77.59% ( 2.05) |
| Both teams to score 55.21% ( 0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.77% ( 2.72) | 28.23% ( -2.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.97% ( 3.3) | 49.02% ( -3.3) |
| Aston Villa Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.65% ( 0.19) | 41.35% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.13% ( 0.16) | 77.86% ( -0.17) |
| Manchester City Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.13% ( 0.96) | 5.87% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.49% ( 2.66) | 22.51% ( -2.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Women | Draw | Manchester City Women |
| 2-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.15)Other @ 1.97% Total : 8.86% | 1-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.61) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.14)0-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.41)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 13.55% | 0-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.46) 0-3 @ 9.22% ( 0.08)1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 8.14% ( 0.11)0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.73)0-4 @ 6.54% ( 0.4)1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0.39)0-5 @ 3.71% ( 0.42)2-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.07)1-5 @ 3.27% ( 0.38)2-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.18)0-6 @ 1.75% ( 0.28)1-6 @ 1.55% ( 0.25)2-5 @ 1.45% ( 0.18)Other @ 4.79% Total : 77.59% |
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