Alaves deserve huge praise for their performance level this season, and the visitors certainly have the ability to make this an uncomfortable match for Athletic. The hosts need to keep winning to stay in the top-four picture, though, and we are backing them to secure all three points on Saturday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.04%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (7.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
