This is a really hard match to call, especially considering Alaves' strong form, and we would not be shocked to see a home win or a draw here. Barcelona need to keep picking up wins in order to stay in the title picture, though, and we are backing them to navigate their way to a vital three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
-0.57) 
0.73) 
