SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 63.88%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Penarol |
63.88% ( 0.19) | 20.59% ( -0.09) | 15.53% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 50.76% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.41% ( 0.23) | 44.59% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.04% ( 0.23) | 66.96% ( -0.22) |
| Atletico Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.73% ( 0.13) | 13.27% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.94% ( 0.26) | 40.06% ( -0.26) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.53% ( 0.02) | 41.47% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.03% ( 0.01) | 77.97% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Penarol |
| 2-0 @ 11.22% 1-0 @ 11.11% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 9.88% 3-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.97% Total : 63.87% | 1-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0)Other @ 0.96% Total : 20.59% | 0-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.71% Total : 15.53% |
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