SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 19.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Danubio |
53.68% ( -0.1) | 26.64% ( 0.07) | 19.68% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 41.25% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.63% ( -0.17) | 61.37% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.73% ( -0.13) | 81.27% ( 0.13) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.88% ( -0.12) | 23.12% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.02% ( -0.17) | 56.98% ( 0.18) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.66% ( -0.06) | 46.34% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.01% ( -0.04) | 81.99% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 15.69% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.31% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.46% Total : 53.68% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.46% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.64% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 2.44% Total : 19.68% |
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