SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 1-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
62.2% ( 1.08) | 20.1% ( -0.3) | 17.7% ( -0.78) |
| Both teams to score 57.31% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.7% ( 0.08) | 38.29% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.42% ( 0.08) | 60.57% ( -0.08) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.18% ( 0.32) | 11.81% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.95% ( 0.68) | 37.05% ( -0.68) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.99% ( -0.8) | 35% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.25% ( -0.85) | 71.75% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.2)1-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.23)4-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.09)Other @ 4.1% Total : 62.2% | 1-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.1% | 1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.17) 0-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.69% Total : 17.7% |
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