SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Zrinjski Mostar had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.85%) and 3-0 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Zrinjski Mostar win it was 0-1 (3.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Zrinjski Mostar |
74.66% ( 0.03) | 16.45% ( 0.03) | 8.89% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 43.46% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.03% ( -0.32) | 42.97% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.63% ( -0.32) | 65.38% ( 0.32) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.1% ( -0.07) | 9.9% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.2% ( -0.17) | 32.8% ( 0.18) |
| Zrinjski Mostar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.23% ( -0.34) | 51.77% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.15% ( -0.22) | 85.85% ( 0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Zrinjski Mostar |
| 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.04% Total : 74.64% | 1-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.55% Total : 16.45% | 0-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.84% Total : 8.89% |
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