SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 62.66%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 16.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.57%), while for an AZ Alkmaar win it was 1-2 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
62.66% ( 0.24) | 20.4% ( -0.04) | 16.94% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.63% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.94% ( -0.18) | 41.05% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.55% ( -0.19) | 63.44% ( 0.18) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.47% ( 0.01) | 12.53% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.45% ( 0.03) | 38.55% ( -0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.46% ( -0.35) | 37.54% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.68% ( -0.35) | 74.32% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Feyenoord | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.58% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0)Other @ 3.54% Total : 62.65% | 1-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.4% | 1-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.27% Total : 16.94% |
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