SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 1-0 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Legia Warsaw win it was 1-2 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
62.84% ( 0.06) | 19.66% ( -0.02) | 17.5% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 58.52% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.46% ( -0) | 36.54% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.31% ( -0) | 58.69% ( -0) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.88% ( 0.02) | 11.12% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.45% ( 0.03) | 35.54% ( -0.04) |
| Legia Warsaw Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.84% ( -0.05) | 34.16% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.15% ( -0.05) | 70.85% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Legia Warsaw |
| 2-1 @ 9.84% 2-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.96% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.13% 5-1 @ 1.74% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.66% Total : 62.84% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.8% 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.66% | 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.08% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.8% Total : 17.5% |
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