SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Shandong Taishan had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Shandong Taishan win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shandong Taishan |
44.71% ( 0.1) | 24.84% ( -0) | 30.45% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 56.45% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.44% ( -0.03) | 46.56% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.17% ( -0.03) | 68.83% ( 0.03) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.12% ( 0.04) | 20.88% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.41% ( 0.05) | 53.59% ( -0.05) |
| Shandong Taishan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.34% ( -0.08) | 28.65% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.53% ( -0.1) | 64.47% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shandong Taishan |
| 1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.34% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.71% | 1-1 @ 11.71% 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 30.45% |
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