SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.06%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.87%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Santa Clara |
68.06% ( 0.6) | 19.31% ( -0.17) | 12.63% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 47.27% ( -0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.77% ( -0.29) | 45.23% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.42% ( -0.27) | 67.58% ( 0.28) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.74% ( 0.08) | 12.26% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.01% ( 0.17) | 37.99% ( -0.17) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.87% ( -0.87) | 46.13% ( 0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.18% ( -0.68) | 81.82% ( 0.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 2-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.19)2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 6.74% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.54% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.14% Total : 68.05% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.75% Total : 19.31% | 0-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.13% Total : 12.63% |
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