SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 58.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 20.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-2 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Exeter City |
58.15% ( -0.49) | 21.13% ( 0.17) | 20.71% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 59.16% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.58% ( -0.35) | 38.41% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.3% ( -0.37) | 60.7% ( 0.37) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87% ( -0.26) | 13% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.48% ( -0.52) | 39.52% ( 0.52) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68% ( 0.1) | 31.99% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.54% ( 0.11) | 68.45% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Exeter City |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.42% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.73% Total : 58.15% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.13% | 1-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.51% Total : 20.71% |
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