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Nations League | League C
Sep 8, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadion Hristo Botev
NI

Bulgaria
1 - 0
N. Ireland

Despodov (40')
Ahmedov (78'), Nurnberger (90+1'), Kolev (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Charles (28'), McNair (29'), Bradley (59'), Hume (81')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Belarus 0-0 Bulgaria
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League
All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Luxembourg
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Bulgaria 1-1 Northern Ireland

On the back of defeating Luxembourg, Northern Ireland will consider themselves to be favourites to edge through this fixture. However, Bulgaria have made a habit of posting draws under this manager, leading us to predict another low-scoring stalemate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bulgaria in this match.

Result
BulgariaDrawNorthern Ireland
46.51% (-0.395 -0.39) 26.55% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 26.94% (0.378 0.38)
Both teams to score 48.88% (0.23099999999999 0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.62% (0.161 0.16)55.38% (-0.161 -0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.42% (0.132 0.13)76.58% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)
Bulgaria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.21% (-0.11799999999999 -0.12)23.79% (0.118 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.05% (-0.169 -0.17)57.95% (0.168 0.17)
Northern Ireland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.13% (0.401 0.4)35.87% (-0.40300000000001 -0.4)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.36% (0.41 0.41)72.65% (-0.40900000000001 -0.41)
Score Analysis
    Bulgaria 46.51%
    Northern Ireland 26.94%
    Draw 26.55%
BulgariaDrawNorthern Ireland
1-0 @ 12.25% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 9.02% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.8% (-0.116 -0.12)
3-1 @ 4.32% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.21% (-0.069999999999999 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.21% (0.011 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.51% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 46.51%
1-1 @ 12.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 8.53% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.62% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 26.55%
0-1 @ 8.75% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 6.44% (0.078 0.08)
0-2 @ 4.49% (0.07 0.07)
1-3 @ 2.2% (0.05 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.58% (0.03 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.53% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 26.94%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Belarus 0-0 Bulgaria
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Last Game: Slovenia 1-1 Bulgaria
Saturday, June 8 at 2pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Romania 0-0 Bulgaria
Tuesday, June 4 at 7.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Azerbaijan 1-1 Bulgaria
Monday, March 25 at 4pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Tanzania 0-1 Bulgaria
Friday, March 22 at 1pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Serbia 2-2 Bulgaria
Sunday, November 19 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Luxembourg
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Andorra
Tuesday, June 11 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Spain 5-1 N. Ireland
Saturday, June 8 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Scotland 0-1 N. Ireland
Tuesday, March 26 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Romania 1-1 N. Ireland
Friday, March 22 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: N. Ireland 2-0 Denmark
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying


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