Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Caen in this match.

Result
Caen	Draw	Bastia
44.7% ( 0.16)	26.78% ( -0.08)	28.52% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 49.25% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.59% (

0.27)

55.41% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.39% (

0.22)

76.61% (

-0.22)

Caen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.33% (

0.2)

24.67% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.8% (

0.28)

59.2% (

-0.27)

Bastia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.38% (

0.08)

34.62% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.65% (

0.09)

71.35% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Caen 44.69%

Bastia 28.52%

Draw 26.78%

Caen	Draw	Bastia
1-0 @ 11.95% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.87% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.46% Total : 44.69%	1-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.54% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.78%	0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 6.72% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.38% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.52%