Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Valenciennes had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Valenciennes win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
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