Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
0.32) 
-0.45) 
