Vizela have certainly taken steps in the right direction in recent weeks, particularly in defence, while their hosts failed to build an improved run following their wins before the break.
Given Chaves' struggles at the back and lack of confidence on their return to action, we fancy the visitors to leave with all three points on Friday and move further clear of the bottom three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 47.06%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.08) 
