SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 47.3%. A win for Leicester City had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Leicester City win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Leicester City |
47.3% ( 0.62) | 23.5% ( 0.52) | 29.2% ( -1.15) |
| Both teams to score 60.34% ( -2.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.9% ( -3.17) | 41.1% ( 3.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.5% ( -3.3) | 63.5% ( 3.31) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.38% ( -0.98) | 17.62% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.79% ( -1.73) | 48.21% ( 1.73) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.25% ( -2.32) | 26.75% ( 2.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.98% ( -3.16) | 62.03% ( 3.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Leicester City |
| 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.89)2-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.57)3-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.31)4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.19)Other @ 3.85% Total : 47.3% | 1-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.52) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.32)0-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.65)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.25)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.5% | 1-2 @ 7.11% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.49)0-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.27)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.34)0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.1% Total : 29.2% |
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