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CL
Premier League | Gameweek 28
Mar 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stamford Bridge
NL

Chelsea
3 - 2
Newcastle

Jackson (6'), Palmer (57'), Mudryk (76')
Sterling (39'), Petrovic (71'), Caicedo (72')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Isak (43'), Murphy (90')
White (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brentford 2-2 Chelsea
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.04%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 22.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.69%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.

Result
ChelseaDrawNewcastle United
56.04% (0.82 0.82) 21.11% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06) 22.85% (-0.758 -0.76)
Both teams to score 62.49% (-0.815 -0.82)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.52% (-0.628 -0.63)35.48% (0.63399999999999 0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.48% (-0.7 -0.7)57.52% (0.706 0.71)
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.34% (0.033999999999992 0.03)12.67% (-0.028 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.17% (0.067999999999998 0.07)38.84% (-0.061 -0.06)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.55% (-0.95699999999999 -0.96)28.45% (0.962 0.96)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.79% (-1.221 -1.22)64.22% (1.227 1.23)
Score Analysis
    Chelsea 56.04%
    Newcastle United 22.85%
    Draw 21.11%
ChelseaDrawNewcastle United
2-1 @ 9.67% (0.071 0.07)
2-0 @ 7.69% (0.26 0.26)
1-0 @ 7.45% (0.243 0.24)
3-1 @ 6.66% (0.056 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.3% (0.185 0.19)
3-2 @ 4.19% (-0.078 -0.08)
4-1 @ 3.44% (0.033 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.74% (0.098 0.1)
4-2 @ 2.16% (-0.038 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.42% (0.015 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.13% (0.042 0.04)
4-3 @ 0.91% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 56.04%
1-1 @ 9.36% (0.058 0.06)
2-2 @ 6.08% (-0.121 -0.12)
0-0 @ 3.6% (0.113 0.11)
3-3 @ 1.75% (-0.082 -0.08)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 21.11%
1-2 @ 5.88% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-1 @ 4.53% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 2.85% (-0.063 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.55% (-0.122 -0.12)
1-3 @ 2.46% (-0.121 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.19% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 3.39%
Total : 22.85%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Brentford 2-2 Chelsea
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 3-2 Leeds
Wednesday, February 28 at 7.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool
Sunday, February 25 at 3pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Chelsea
Saturday, February 17 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 1-3 Chelsea
Monday, February 12 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea
Wednesday, February 7 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Newcastle 3-0 Wolves
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Blackburn 1-1 Newcastle (3-4 pen.)
Tuesday, February 27 at 8pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle
Saturday, February 24 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Saturday, February 17 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-3 Newcastle
Saturday, February 10 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 4-4 Luton
Saturday, February 3 at 3pm in Premier League


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