SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 56.04%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 22.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.69%) and 1-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Newcastle United |
56.04% ( 0.82) | 21.11% ( -0.06) | 22.85% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 62.49% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.52% ( -0.63) | 35.48% ( 0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.48% ( -0.7) | 57.52% ( 0.71) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.34% ( 0.03) | 12.67% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.17% ( 0.07) | 38.84% ( -0.06) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.55% ( -0.96) | 28.45% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.79% ( -1.22) | 64.22% ( 1.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.26)1-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.29% Total : 56.04% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.11% | 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.39% Total : 22.85% |
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